What is the next big market bubble?
How Speculators Are Causing the Cost of Living to Skyrocket
"In late 2003, (speculators) invested only $13 billion (€8.4 billion) in the food commodities business. By March 2008, that number had jumped to $260 billion (€168 billion), an increase of 1,900 percent.Nick Leeson, a young British stock trader who gambled away more than £800 million in the mid-1990s. When he could no longer hide his losses, he left behind a short note at his desk ("I'm sorry") and fled. His actions led to the collapse of his employer, Barings, England's oldest investment bank."
Another year and another bubble -
- The dot com fun of the late 20th century
- The real estate fun of this decade that we are still reeling from
- And now a commodity bubble that is driving up the price of foods, fuel and minerals.
Of course we all want to make our money work for ourselves because we would like to magnify our hard work, our time investment and do something greater with our lives than simply work. And I ABSOLUTELY believe that speculation in the market is necessary to tame future market imbalances because sometimes we humans just get lazy and used to our simple lives and don't pay attention to the broader picture - so we need these disciplinarians to put us in our place.
However, those who discipline have lost their own discipline because they are in the chase for short term profit. In order to stay in the game you believe that you have to play the game like everyone else and if everyone else is pushing up the price of dot com stocks, or investing in sub prime real estate, or buying tulips or, now a days, moving obscene amounts of money into commodities then you believe you have to. Because bubbles cannot continue on forever you will be lost inside of one of them because someone will be the last person holding the bag.
The best example of a person who I think of that has avoided the bubbles yet prospered far beyond anything I can conceive of is Warren Buffet. It was educational to watch him in the late 90's mock the dot com investments. It was obvious as he spoke down on the real estate bubble. It is great to hear him admonish our current (Bernake) and past (Greenspan) administrations pro-inflation policies. When I invest I try to listen to the smart people because even my big cranial volume can't keep up with everything.
It will take time for this bubble to pop because there is a LOT of money that needs to be invested in the world and it hasn't happened just yet that the best investment flavor has popped up next. Science and technology research, infrastructure, education, green energy, water and the amazing developing world few other areas look prime to be taken advantage of. But the nice thing about these areas is that if there is fall out in these after the investment bubble begins we at least will be left with a lot of wonderful societal benefits that will continually pay back dividends to all of us, which will, oh my, allow us to multiply the value of our time and hard work.
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Because it benefits me to make all of you smarter! That's WHY!
Labels: acusticthoughts, stock market

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